Safaricom’s M-PESA has now lost market share for six consecutive quarters, slipping from 97% in Q4 2023 to 90.8% in Q1 2025, according to new data from the Communications Authority of Kenya (CA). The continued slide points to growing competition in Kenya’s mobile money sector, where interoperability, pricing, and agent access influence customer behaviour.
Airtel Money’s share rose to 9.1% in Q1 2025, up from 8.9% the previous quarter and just 2.9% two years ago. Its growth has been supported by fee refunds, lower transaction costs, and partnerships with supermarket chains like Naivas to expand agent access.
Mobile money subscriptions grew 7.3% to 45.4 million during the quarter, pushing penetration to 86.6%. That rise mirrors a broader rebound in SIM subscriptions, which grew 6.7% to 76.2 million, helped by telcos’ win-back campaigns.
The total number of registered mobile money agents also increased by 5.5% to 417,000, indicating a broader distribution reach for all players, particularly challengers like Airtel. While M-PESA still dominates in agent footprint with over 299,000 outlets, Airtel Money’s focused growth is beginning to pay off.
Lower costs remain a key advantage for Airtel. Sending KES 1,000 ($7.7) to other networks costs KES 11 ($0.085) on Airtel, compared to M-PESA’s KES 13 ($0.1). Withdrawing the same amount is cheaper on Airtel by KES 2 ($0.015).
M-PESA’s decline began after Kenya introduced mobile money interoperability in 2022, which enabled users to transact across different networks. That shift weakened the lock-in that Safaricom had long enjoyed. Airtel has used the opportunity to attract new users with targeted incentives, including airtime cashback for bank-to-Airtel Money transfers.
The Central Bank of Kenya (CBK) has yet to implement agent-level interoperability, which would allow users to access services at any agent, regardless of provider. If rolled out, it could further reduce the barriers for customers to switch.
M-PESA still moves over 30 billion transactions annually, worth more than KES 38.29 trillion ($296 billion), and serves over 34 million users. But Airtel’s gains suggest that momentum is no longer one-sided.
CBK’s new payments infrastructure, the Fast Payment System (FPS), could further level the field by enabling instant money transfers across banks and payment platforms.
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