The United States recorded a $1.45bn goods trade surplus with Nigeria in the first 10 months of 2025, reversing a deficit position from the previous year, as US exports to Nigeria surged while imports from Nigeria declined, the latest US trade data show.
Figures from the US Census Bureau indicate that between January and October 2025, the US exported goods worth $5.94bn to Nigeria and imported $4.49bn, resulting in a positive balance of $1.447bn in America’s favour.
This marked a turnaround from the same period of 2024, when the US ran a $1.367bn deficit with Nigeria. In October 2025 alone, the US posted a $162m trade surplus with Nigeria, exporting $532m worth of goods while importing $369m.
This was higher than the $116m surplus recorded in September 2025, pointing to a month-on-month improvement of $46m, or nearly 40 per cent. The October outcome was mainly shaped by falling US imports from Nigeria rather than by expanding exports.
Between September and October, US imports from Nigeria declined by $171m, or 31.7 per cent, while US exports to Nigeria fell by $124m, or 18.9 per cent.
Despite weaker export volumes, the sharper drop in imports widened the US surplus.
A year-on-year comparison shows the scale of the shift. In October 2024, the US recorded a $103m trade deficit with Nigeria, exporting $295m and importing $398m. By October 2025, that position had flipped to a $162m surplus.
Over that period, US exports to Nigeria jumped by $237m, or 80.3 per cent, while imports from Nigeria fell by $29m, or 7.3 per cent, confirming that the improvement was driven primarily by stronger US export performance.
On a cumulative basis, US exports to Nigeria rose from $3.71bn in the first 10 months of 2024 to $5.94bn in the same period of 2025, an increase of $2.23bn, or 60.2 per cent.
Meanwhile, imports from Nigeria declined from $5.07bn to $4.49bn, down $582m, or 11.5 per cent. Nigeria’s trade reversal played a significant role in reshaping US–Africa trade dynamics in 2025.
While the US still ran a year-to-date goods trade deficit of $3.74bn with Africa as a whole, Nigeria stood out as one of the few major African economies where the US recorded a sizeable surplus. Total US exports to Africa reached $34.08bn in the first 10 months of 2025, while imports stood at $37.82bn.
Nigeria accounted for $5.94bn of those exports, meaning it absorbed about 17.4 per cent of all US goods shipped to Africa. On the import side, Nigeria supplied $4.49bn worth of goods to the US, representing about 11.9 per cent of total US imports from the continent.
In October 2025, Nigeria alone accounted for roughly 15.6 per cent of US exports to Africa and 12.8 per cent of US imports from the region. More strikingly, Nigeria contributed about 31 per cent of Africa’s total US trade surplus for the month, underlining its growing importance to America’s improving trade position on the continent.
Without Nigeria’s $1.447bn year-to-date surplus, the US trade deficit with Africa would have widened to roughly $5.18bn. In effect, Nigeria’s surplus offset nearly 28 per cent of the US shortfall with the rest of Africa combined.
Among selected African trading partners, only Egypt recorded a larger surplus with the US. The US recorded a $5.43bn year-to-date trade surplus with Egypt in 2025, exporting $7.88bn and importing $2.44bn. Nigeria ranked second, ahead of Algeria and South Africa, which remained firmly in deficit positions.
South Africa remained the largest drag on US–Africa trade, with a year-to-date deficit of $9.22bn. The US imported $14.67bn worth of goods from South Africa while exporting just $5.45bn.
Algeria also posted a $1.09bn deficit, while other African countries combined posted a $299m deficit. The broader African picture also improved month on month. In October 2024, the US recorded a $467m trade deficit with Africa, exporting $2.86bn and importing $3.33bn. By October 2025, that had shifted to a $523m surplus, representing a $990m swing in favour of the US within one year.
That improvement was again driven mainly by reduced imports. Between September and October 2025, US imports from Africa fell from $3.48bn to $2.89bn, while exports eased slightly from $3.59bn to $3.42bn.
The trade outcomes come against the backdrop of renewed US protectionist rhetoric and tariff-focused trade policies associated with US President Donald Trump, which have influenced sourcing decisions, pricing structures, and trade flows globally.
While the US trade report does not directly attribute Nigeria’s figures to tariffs, the data reflect an environment in which US export competitiveness has strengthened while imports from certain partners have softened.
The trade surplus coincided with Washington’s implementation of its “reciprocal” tariff regime, under which Donald Trump signed an executive order raising Nigeria’s tariff rate from 14 per cent to 15 per cent.
The order, issued in late July, took effect on August 7, 2025. Although crude oil has been exempted in several cases, the higher duty applies directly to a wide range of non-oil Nigerian exports, creating uncertainty for American importers and dampening demand ahead of and after the effective date.
With crude oil exports largely exempted from the new tariff regime, non-oil exports appear to have borne the brunt of the disruption.
Earlier in September, President Bola Tinubu said his administration would remain resilient and had no fear of the trade policy direction of US President Donald Trump, particularly tariffs targeting Nigerian exports. The President cited Nigeria’s current economic trajectory and growing non-oil revenues as buffers against external shocks. Tinubu said, “If non-oil revenue is growing, then we have no fear of whatever Trump is doing on the other side.”
Also, Nigeria’s Minister of Industry, Trade and Investment, Jumoke Oduwole, said the country would not be stampeded into retaliatory action but would continue on its path of reform and diversification. “Nigeria remains responsive; we’re not reacting. We’re focused on the eight-point agenda of President Bola Tinubu. We will continue to support domestic investors and expand market access for Nigerian businesses,” Oduwole said.
She noted that while the United States remains an important trade partner, Nigeria is strengthening its African Continental Free Trade Area strategy and boosting non-oil exports, which grew by 24 per cent year on year in the first quarter of 2025.
“It’s mostly an energy trading relationship, but we are waiting to see what happens with AGOA (African Growth and Opportunity Act) in September. We are also growing exports to other African countries and expanding partnerships with Brazil, China, Japan, and the UAE,” she added.
The minister stressed that Nigeria would seize opportunities for South–South cooperation, pursue export diversification, and reduce dependence on the American market.
Stakeholders in Nigeria’s export sector earlier called on the United States of America to review the tariffs on Nigerian products, while describing the tariffs as an opportunity for the country to expand its non-oil exports.
Stakeholders, led by the Nigerian-American Chamber of Commerce and the Nigerian Export Promotion Council, noted that the US tariffs should not be seen only as a challenge but also as a window for growth.
Also, a development economist and Chief Executive Officer of CSA Advisory, Dr Aliyu Ilias, said Nigeria should view the current trade situation as an opportunity to adapt. “I think it’s a good time that this is happening to Nigeria. Trump’s tariff is not only for Nigeria. The advantage is that we are now exporting more overall, which is positive for us,” he said.
Ilias argued that Nigeria could use its position within BRICS and other international alliances to reduce vulnerability and build resilience. He added that with other countries such as India and China also facing US tariffs, Nigeria had an opening to forge new partnerships.
“We also have to start being on our own. We can trade with other partners and see, because other partners are also looking for partners. The tariff that is affecting us is also affecting others, so it may be a good opportunity,” he added.
Similarly, a renowned economist and Chief Executive Officer of the Centre for the Promotion of Private Enterprise, Dr Muda Yusuf, downplayed the impact of the US tariffs on Nigeria. “Our trade with the US is not that strategic. When anything goes wrong, it is not as if it can have any fundamental effect on our economy. Our trade exposure to them is very limited,” Yusuf explained.
He noted that Nigerian exports to the US are dominated by crude oil and a handful of other commodities such as fertilisers, making the country’s trade profile narrow and underdeveloped in non-oil areas. Yusuf added that Nigeria’s tariff exposure is relatively moderate compared with other countries.
However, he identified another challenge beyond tariffs: US visa policy. “The bigger challenge for Nigeria’s trade relationship with the US is Washington’s visa policy. Barriers to travel limit business interactions and investment inflows. That is more critical than tariffs in the long run,” he said.
Since its inception, the Trump administration has steadily rolled out a series of visa restrictions and travel bans targeting Nigeria and several other countries.